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Podcast 39

Dylan along with Jake, Alisa, Josh, and Michelle first discuss the recent early release of the Sozin's Comet book in the news segment and then go way in-depth into "The Western Air Temple."...see more

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Podcast 38

Podcast 37
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Podcast 35
Podcast 34

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Podcast 20: Day of Black Sun Special
Podcast 26: 314 & 315 Title Discussion
Podcast 21: Post Invasion/Pre-312 Discussion
Podcast 19: 309 Episode Discussion
Podcast 18: 308 Episode Discussion
Podcast 16: 306 Episode Discussion

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Opinion: Thoughts from Now until May: What to Expect Air Date Wise, Ratings Wise, and More PDF Print E-mail
Mar 07, 2008 at 07:53 PM

Dylan here (and Jake adding commentary throughout) and well, I've been wanting to make this post for a while. It's March 7th, and sometime soon we can expect the air date for 312 in the USA. Now, recent revelations have led me to believe that "The Boiling Rock" will be aired as a one hour special. This seems fairly obvious now that there is a Nick.com game based off it already. This contradicts what I previously thought, that they would air separately. This also screws with the common up until now theory of 312 airing on March 28th, 313-317 airing in straight weeks after, a week off, and then the finale on May 16th. Well, with the "The Boiling Rock" likely being a one hour special now, that theory is pretty much out the door. Things have also been too quiet in terms of news on the air date for it to air this month. So, where does this leave us? April 4th, 2008. Yes, that is my current prediction, and I'll go as far as to say it's almost definite. The alternate being April 11th. Here's how it would look for the rest of season 3:

Dylan's Predictions for 312-321 Air Dates:
312:  April 4th
313: April 11th
314/315: April 18th
316: April 25th
317: May 2th
OFF: May 9th
Finale (318-321): May 16th

Jake: "I agree with Dylan's anaylsis here.  Though there's no official confirmation 314/315 will be aired together as a movie (a game on Nick.com is hardly confirmation), I imagine it makes sense with the subject matter (if you know the spoiler you know what I'm talking about)."

Yes, this still leaves us with the finale on May 16th. Why May 16th you ask? Well, first of all it is the last Friday in May Sweeps. And second, the "Sozin's Comet" book comes out on May 20th. It is an adaptation of the finale.

Jake: "This would be true, if only Nick actually cared about May Sweeps.  May Sweeps are primarily for the network TV stations, such as Fox and CBS.  That's when they set rates for advertising for future time slots.  That's why normally you'll see networks pulling out all the stops.  But I don't believe Nick plays to that audience.  The Nielsen ratings are important for their own advertisers and partners, but you don't see Nick airing a full-week of new Spongebob episodes in May, they did it in March, not a Sweeps month.  So don't get wrapped around Sweeps, they mean almost nothing to Nick."

So, assuming 312 will air on April 4th, when will we have it officially confirmed? At the very latest March 20th, as that is when it will be up on TvGuide at the latest. But Viacom will likely issue a Press Release before then for it. My guess is that it will come out on Monday.

How about Canada? Well, current scheduling has them on track for 312 to show again on March 28th there, but assuming 312 airs April 4th in the USA, something will have to delay it. Expect Canada to get back on track with the US starting with 312.

Jake: "Not meaning to contradict Dylan here, but I don't know if synching airings with Canada of Avatar episodes is a priority of Nick's right now.  Avatar is off their radar at the moment, they are not promoting as much as they have in the past, and they are moving on.  Part of this process, as Danny Phantom fans know all to well, is airing episodes first elsewhere, which they have already began to do.  I'd kind of be surprised if that all went away."

Now that the technicalities are out of the way, why is Nick making us wait so long? Well, simply, it's best for Avatar. These are the FINAL 10 episodes! That's it! No more Avatar likely EVER AGAIN after this. Savor it while you still can.

Jake: "Yeah seriously folks.  Don't expect anything more after this season for a while.  At best we'll have a special which would at best air three to four years from now, if at all.  No spin-off series.  Specials are a long-shot as well.  A season 4 is not likely at this point either, unless Mike and Bryan change their minds, which I seriously doubt."

Now, what do I expect ratings wise for the last 10 episodes? Well, expect 312 to bomb. Many fans have seen it time and time again, Avatar does not do well after a break. 313 will likely not get above 3 million either. But the "Boiling Rock" special I expect to do extremely well, drawing in the range of 3.5-3.8 million viewers. Then expect 316 and 317 both to be above 3 million. Now comes the Finale. The 2 HOUR finale. There is a question of when Nick will air it. 7:30-9:30 or 8:00-10:00? My guess is 7:30-9:30, as Nick wouldn't want the final episode on too late for the kiddies. So that means on May 16th, Avatar would be THE ONLY Nick program in prime time on the last week of Sweeps. Wow. Now, I have really high expectations for the finale. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I'm looking in the range on 5-7 Million viewers. Making it not only the highest rated Avatar showing ever, but also one of the highest on Nick ever.

Jake: "As long as 314/315 aren't leaked early, it might crack 4 million, doing better than DoBS.  Also, I can't see the finale starting at the bottom of the hour.  If it was a 90-minute episode, then possibly, but this is the series finale, as Dylan correctly pointed out.  Lower ratings are generally generated when you start a show on the half-hour rather than a new hour.  So 8-10 is my guess.  A 7:30-9:30 timeslot would make no sense and probably underwhelm the ratings a good bit."

How about the quality of the last 10 episodes? Set expectations high, but not too high. Nothing's going to blow me out of the water before the finale. 316 has a lot of potential along with 314 and 315, but I don't expect any series classics. Feel free to prove me wrong Avatar. How about the finale? Well, this is the thing we've been speculating on for years! Literally! And it's finally here. The conclusion of our favorite TV Show. And it's going to be spectacular from what I'm hearing about it so far. The best episodes of Avatar ever? I think with ease. 318 will set up for an explosive 319 which will set up for an even more explosive 320! And hopefully 321 will have a resolution that will satisfy fans (Don't count on it, xD). Personally, I can't wait for May. The Finale will be amazing. All we have to do is wait 2 more months. 

Jake: "I disagree there won't be any 'series classics.'  I think we're in for some awesome episodes, including 314, 315 and 316.  And apparently 317 is a funny episode (or so we think).  Just sayin' you can't judge whether an episode will be classic or not based on the title.  And I will repeat this again, 321 is just the continued last half of the original 320.  320 was animated twice as long, but written as a thirty-minute episode.  So you can't really classify them differently at this point.  I do think there will be a satisfying ending, but guys, there will be many storylines which we have been speculating on that will not be touched upon or tied up in this finale.  So be ready for it!"

Last Updated ( Mar 08, 2008 at 03:19 AM )
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